From Short-Term Appetites to Planetary Stewardship (notes) @ 2025 J. Giro
Overview It looks like our natural ability to plan ahead is getting weaker due to business interests, fast news cycles, and the idea that we can keep growing forever. New research from 2024-25 shows that we might hit our carbon limit for keeping warming to 1.5 °C in just two years if we keep burning fossil fuels at this rate (The Guardian, 2025). At the same time, scientists say we're already over the safe levels for six out of nine planetary limits, putting the environment at risk of serious changes (Rockström et al., 2023). This article brings together the latest science, policies, and real-world examples to offer a way forward that focuses on enough resources, resilience, and future success.
The Neuroscience of Myopia Daniel Kahneman's dual-process model shows why we often rely on quick thinking, or “System 1,” when threats seem far away. This instinct is even stronger thanks to social media and the pressure of profit goals. Behavioral economists point out that most people tend to ignore future climate issues, valuing short-term gains much more. This makes it tough to rally support for climate action, even when long-term benefits clearly outweigh the costs. To tackle this problem, we need policies that make people think about the long run, like showing carbon pricing on utility bills, alongside initiatives like community climate assemblies that focus on the needs of future generations.
Planetary Boundaries: 2024-25 Update - Climate limits. The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024 says we have about 200 billion tons of CO₂ left to stay under the 1.5 °C threshold, which is about five years of our current emissions. If we want a safer margin of 66 percent, that drops to 80 billion tons (UNEP, 2024). - Biodiversity. A 2023 report from Nature shows that species are disappearing faster and biomass is dropping, putting genetic diversity at risk (Rockström et al., 2023). - Freshwater changes. New satellite data reveal that river flow changes are moving outside the normal ranges in a third of big river basins. - New materials. Micro and nano plastics are now found in all ocean gyres, and their concentration has doubled since 2010. The biggest worry is the feedback loops—like how warming can dry out wetlands and reduce carbon absorption. A study from 2025 suggests that to tackle these multi-factor issues, we need to act on climate, land, and water all at once, not just one at a time (Richardson et al., 2023).
Why 2025-2035 Is the Fork in the Road Carbon budget. We have less than 80 gigatons of CO₂ left if we want a solid shot at keeping global warming below 1.5 °C. At this rate, we’ll hit that limit well before 2035, which means we’ll have to rely on expensive methods to remove emissions later on. Infrastructure lock-in. About 70% of the money being spent on new power projects is still tied to fossil fuels (IEA, 2024). The power plants and vehicles built in this decade will keep pumping out emissions for years to come. Finance and equity. At COP 29, there’s a target of 300 billion USD a year to help developing countries by 2035 (UNFCCC, 2024). If we miss this target, it could lead to bigger problems with climate debt and trust issues. Social legitimacy. By 2035, most voters in over forty countries will be those born after 2000. The credibility of today’s leaders will depend on whether they’ve worked to ensure a livable future.
Drivers of Overshoot: 1. The growth urge: Focusing too much on GDP ignores environmental damage. 2. Debt-driven complexity: Cheap money supports big, energy-hungry systems that become fragile. 3. Supply-chain efficiency: Lean systems cut out buffers, making food and medicine more vulnerable to climate impacts. 4. Cognitive mismatch: Our brains are wired for short-term thinking, which makes it hard to consider long-term risks.
Pathways to Sufficiency and Resilience
Rethinking Prosperity
- Well-being budgets: New Zealand's 2024 budget is focusing on health, fairness, and being ready for climate change.
- Performance frameworks: Scotland is looking at more than just GDP with its National Performance Framework, tracking eleven different goals.
- Beyond-GDP pilots: Bhutan is trying something interesting with its “Mindfulness City,” linking spending to Gross National Happiness.
Aligning Finance with Real Needs In the UK, EU, and Japan, companies are now required to have plans to reach net-zero emissions if they want to access funding. Also, COP-29 is setting a minimum funding target to help low-income areas adapt and deal with climate change.
Regenerative Food-Water Systems - In India, Bayer plans to issue 250,000 tons of soil-carbon credits from regenerative rice by 2025. This shows they are aiming for large-scale monetization. - A start-up called Varaha has enrolled 80,000 small farmers across 700,000 acres in South Asia and Africa, helping to store 1.7 million tons of CO₂. - In the U.S., there’s been some push-back against “climate-smart” grants, but funding from the Inflation Reduction Act is still putting aside three billion dollars each year for soil health practices through 2027.
Circularity and the Right to Repair The EU is rolling out a Right-to-Repair Directive in 2024 that will add a year to product guarantees if consumers opt for repair. It also requires manufacturers to provide spare parts and manuals for years after the warranty is up, showing a shift towards more sustainable value chains.
Cultural Renaissance Indigenous governance practices focus on long-term care for the land and community. Bringing these ideas into schools and media can help people think about the future with a mindset that looks seven generations ahead.
Implementation Case Studies
- In Iceland, a dashboard tracking national well-being has made people 14% more confident in how the budget's handled, according to a 2024 survey.
- In Kenya, community-owned solar micro-grids have reduced diesel use by 30% and helped raise incomes by providing refrigeration.
- In the European Union, experts expect the Right-to-Repair law will cut carbon emissions by 18 million tons and save consumers around 176 billion EUR by 2035.
- In India, efforts to promote regenerative rice farming have increased farmers' income by 11% while also lowering methane emissions by 20%.
Roadmap for Actors People and communities should try to buy more local, low-input foods, join energy co-ops, and support budgets that focus on well-being. Businesses and financial groups can help by sharing their emissions reports and shifting their research towards making products more durable and easier to fix. Governments and international organizations need to cut fossil fuel subsidies by 2030 and use that money for climate efforts. They should also include environmental limits in trade deals and create funds to help deal with climate risks.
Conclusion The way we measured success in the twentieth century—by pulling more and more resources from the Earth—has really taken a toll on our planet. But just like we came up with amazing things like skyscrapers and space travel, we can also create communities that thrive while taking care of the planet. The next ten years are crucial: we can either keep pushing past our limits or start fresh with smart, sustainable ideas. Thinking ahead now is the best thing we can do for future generations, as we’re already influencing their world.
References
Bayer AG. (2025, April 12). Bayer to issue first carbon credits from regenerative farming practices in India [Press release]. https://www.bayer.com
European Commission. (2024). Directive on common rules promoting the repair of goods. https://commission.europa.eu
Global Carbon Project. (2024). Global Carbon Budget 2024. https://globalcarbonbudget.org
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2023). Climate change 2023: Synthesis report (Core Writing Team). https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.001
International Energy Agency. (2024). World Energy Outlook 2024. https://www.iea.org
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S. E., Donges, J. F., … Rockström, J. (2023). Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries. Science Advances, 9(37), eadh2458. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458
Rockström, J., Gupta, J., Qin, D., Lade, S. J., Abrams, J. F., Andersen, L. S., … Zhang, X. (2023). Safe and just Earth-system boundaries. Nature, 619(7968), 102-111. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8
The Guardian. (2025, June 18). Only two years left of world’s carbon budget to meet 1.5 °C target, scientists warn. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jun/18/only-two-years-left-of-world-carbon-budget-to-meet-15c-target-scientists-warn-climate-crisis
United Nations Environment Programme. (2024). Emissions Gap Report 2024: Climate crunch time. https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024#:~:text=It's%20Climate%20Crunch%20Time.&text=We%20are%20in%20the%20midst,2.6%C2%B0C%20and%20beyond.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2024, December 12). COP29 outcome: Tripling climate finance for developing countries. https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/cop29-key-outcomes-and-next-steps-for-the-uk/#:~:text=Agreement%20was%20reached%20on%20a,countries%20expressing%20frustration%20and%20disappointment. https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/cop29-key-outcomes-and-next-steps-for-the-uk/#:~:text=Agreement%20was%20reached%20on%20a,countries%20expressing%20frustration%20and%20disappointment.
Varaha ClimateAg. (2024, November 18). Empowering smallholder farmers through regenerative practices, https://earthly.org/blog/empowering-smallholder-farmers-for-sustainability-and-climate-resilience-in-india
